
\begin{table}
\caption{Bayesian Logistic Regression on the Post-conflict Involvement}
\begin{center}
\scalebox{1}{
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c c }
\hline
 & Model 1 & Model 2 & Model 3 & Model 4 & Model 5 \\
\hline
Intercept                               & $-8.584^{**}$    & $-7.908^{**}$    & $-7.443^{*}$     & $-12.355^{***}$  & $-11.103^{***}$  \\
                                        & $(2.946)$        & $(3.059)$        & $(3.072)$        & $(2.689)$        & $(2.773)$        \\
TP Neighbouring                         & $2.534^{***}$    & $3.682^{***}$    & $3.932^{***}$    &                  &                  \\
                                        & $(0.259)$        & $(0.308)$        & $(0.342)$        &                  &                  \\
TP Wartime MICs(count)                  & $0.410^{***}$    & $0.582^{***}$    & $0.534^{***}$    & $0.367^{***}$    & $0.490^{***}$    \\
                                        & $(0.027)$        & $(0.036)$        & $(0.040)$        & $(0.017)$        & $(0.025)$        \\
TP Polity2                              & $0.068^{**}$     & $0.038^{\cdot}$  & $0.037$          &                  &                  \\
                                        & $(0.023)$        & $(0.023)$        & $(0.025)$        &                  &                  \\
Postwar MIC(decay)                      & $0.494^{***}$    & $0.493^{***}$    & $0.492^{***}$    & $0.487^{***}$    & $0.481^{***}$    \\
                                        & $(0.051)$        & $(0.054)$        & $(0.055)$        & $(0.041)$        & $(0.043)$        \\
Polity2                                 & $-0.038$         & $-0.039$         & $-0.034$         & $-0.097^{***}$   & $-0.068^{*}$     \\
                                        & $(0.030)$        & $(0.030)$        & $(0.030)$        & $(0.029)$        & $(0.028)$        \\
Count of Postwar Violence               & $0.042$          & $0.037$          & $0.036$          & $0.049$          & $0.038$          \\
                                        & $(0.071)$        & $(0.074)$        & $(0.075)$        & $(0.064)$        & $(0.068)$        \\
Conflict Duration (log)                 & $-0.126^{*}$     & $-0.100^{\cdot}$ & $-0.097^{\cdot}$ & $-0.157^{***}$   & $-0.182^{***}$   \\
                                        & $(0.055)$        & $(0.056)$        & $(0.056)$        & $(0.047)$        & $(0.048)$        \\
GDP per Capita (log)                    & $-0.589^{*}$     & $-0.718^{**}$    & $-0.751^{**}$    & $-0.048$         & $-0.228$         \\
                                        & $(0.259)$        & $(0.264)$        & $(0.266)$        & $(0.234)$        & $(0.234)$        \\
Population (log)                        & $0.294^{\cdot}$  & $0.264$          & $0.229$          & $0.363^{*}$      & $0.362^{*}$      \\
                                        & $(0.168)$        & $(0.171)$        & $(0.172)$        & $(0.149)$        & $(0.155)$        \\
Ceasefire                               & $-0.089$         & $-0.076$         & $-0.011$         & $-0.144$         & $-0.327$         \\
                                        & $(0.500)$        & $(0.498)$        & $(0.497)$        & $(0.469)$        & $(0.472)$        \\
Government Victory                      & $-2.707^{\cdot}$ & $-2.691^{\cdot}$ & $-2.575^{\cdot}$ & $-2.734^{\cdot}$ & $-2.960^{\cdot}$ \\
                                        & $(1.512)$        & $(1.516)$        & $(1.506)$        & $(1.509)$        & $(1.526)$        \\
Rebel Victory                           & $0.243$          & $0.564$          & $0.565$          & $1.598^{***}$    & $1.266^{***}$    \\
                                        & $(0.416)$        & $(0.424)$        & $(0.425)$        & $(0.365)$        & $(0.370)$        \\
Low Activity                            & $-0.331$         & $-0.586^{\cdot}$ & $-0.568^{\cdot}$ & $0.072$          & $-0.251$         \\
                                        & $(0.296)$        & $(0.308)$        & $(0.311)$        & $(0.270)$        & $(0.277)$        \\
Peace Months                            & $-0.092$         & $-0.113$         & $-0.116$         & $-0.081$         & $-0.099$         \\
                                        & $(0.070)$        & $(0.071)$        & $(0.071)$        & $(0.064)$        & $(0.065)$        \\
Peace Months$^2$                        & $0.004$          & $0.004$          & $0.005$          & $0.003$          & $0.004$          \\
                                        & $(0.007)$        & $(0.007)$        & $(0.007)$        & $(0.007)$        & $(0.007)$        \\
Peace Months$^3$                        & $-0.000$         & $-0.000$         & $-0.000$         & $-0.000$         & $-0.000$         \\
                                        & $(0.000)$        & $(0.000)$        & $(0.000)$        & $(0.000)$        & $(0.000)$        \\
TP Neighbouring*TP Wartime MICs(count)  &                  & $-0.397^{***}$   & $-0.348^{***}$   &                  &                  \\
                                        &                  & $(0.054)$        & $(0.057)$        &                  &                  \\
TP Aid                                  &                  &                  & $0.767^{\cdot}$  &                  &                  \\
                                        &                  &                  & $(0.437)$        &                  &                  \\
TP Arms Transfer                        &                  &                  & $1.852^{***}$    &                  &                  \\
                                        &                  &                  & $(0.550)$        &                  &                  \\
Non-state TP(=1)                        &                  &                  &                  & $-1.065^{***}$   & $-0.133$         \\
                                        &                  &                  &                  & $(0.270)$        & $(0.254)$        \\
Non-state TP(=1)*TP Wartime MICs(count) &                  &                  &                  &                  & $-0.190^{***}$   \\
                                        &                  &                  &                  &                  & $(0.028)$        \\
\hline
AIC                                     & 974.180          & 908.315          & 901.443          & 1473.454         & 1431.573         \\
BIC                                     & 1129.601         & 1072.879         & 1084.292         & 1627.160         & 1594.886         \\
Log Likelihood                          & -470.090         & -436.158         & -430.721         & -720.727         & -698.786         \\
Deviance                                & 940.180          & 872.315          & 861.443          & 1441.454         & 1397.573         \\
Num. obs.                               & 69041            & 69041            & 69041            & 109826           & 109826           \\
\hline
\multicolumn{6}{l}{\scriptsize{$^{***}p<0.001$, $^{**}p<0.01$, $^*p<0.05$, $^{\cdot}p<0.1$}}
\end{tabular}
}
\label{bayestab1}
\end{center}
\end{table}
